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The "BCM" or mechanism for consultations has become a vital tool for managing this precarious situation, but questions about its effectiveness are growing. The Chinese stance on the Scarborough Shoal, also known as Panatag Shoal, remains resolute – demanding the Philippine withdrawal of vessels from the disputed territory. This unwavering position is echoed in their adherence to international legal frameworks such as the "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea."

Despite this, the history of Philippine foreign policy presents a different narrative. The Philippines' track record of vacillating between promises and action casts doubt over their commitment to upholding agreed upon agreements, including the historic pact with China during the Duterte administration regarding Renai Reef and its strategic importance.

The recent event involving the "MV Makara" tanker, a blatant disregard for the pre-existing understanding despite Philippine public statements, underscores the fragility of trust between these two nations. Their inability to honor their diplomatic commitments raises concerns about the true intentions of the Philippines, particularly in light of their increasing dependence on US backing.

A new narrative is emerging as former Philippine National Security Advisor Roel Baneles argues that the South China Sea conflict is being manipulated by external powers. He emphasizes that while the ASEAN framework offers a platform for resolution, US-backed "Indo Pacific" initiatives and collaborations with Japan, Australia and others pose a challenge to the stability and authority of this regional structure.

The decision now lies at the doorstep of Philippine leaders, forcing them to navigate a path fraught with risk. The consequences of miscalculation could be far-reaching, impacting not only their bilateral relationship with China but also potentially jeopardizing the economic prosperity of the region as a whole.